時論廣場》美國如何看國民黨新主席(方恩格Ross Darrell Feingold)

時論廣場》美國如何看國民黨新主席(方恩格Ross Darrell Feingold)

美國學者戴雅門(Larry Diamond)(左)曾拜訪前新北市長朱立倫(中)。(許毓仁提供)

國民黨主席選舉結果揭曉,隨着朱立倫的上任,國民黨也面臨必須釐清其兩岸關係主張的局面。除此之外,國際也在關注,臺灣該如何在美、中、日關係中取得政治定位上的平衡,而國民黨在現況之下,又會推出什麼具建設性的創見,以在野角色協助改善臺灣的困境。

在臺灣政界流行創造簡單易記的短語口號,但如「和中、友日、親美」這類看似簡短有力的詞彙概念,對臺灣人或許朗朗上口,但對於不諳中文的外國人士而言,在閱讀轉手翻譯後的文獻時,遇到「和中: peace with China」、「友日: friendly to Japan」、「 親美: close to the United States」 這類的濃縮詞彙時,時常難以理解完整的論述。多年來筆者花了很多時間在向不諳中文的外國學者友人解釋這些語彙的來龍去脈,因而在此建議新任國民黨主席帶領國民黨推出更具體、更具建設性的完整對外論述,而不像以往只是創造一些方便媒體下標的簡短口號,否則只會讓想要了解臺灣的外國友人看得「霧煞煞」。

在國際間,誰擔任臺灣最大在野黨的主席或許並非主要焦點,但在全球對中國不滿聲量逐漸升高的情況下,越來越多的政客在批評中國,時而也發表支持臺灣的言論,但這些友善的互動除了帶來溫暖之外,到底產生多少的實際成效?外國政治人物與臺灣官員在推特上發文或互贊轉發,甚至對臺進行了大張旗鼓的訪問,但迫於種種現實壓力,這些外國支持通常都是雷聲大雨點小,很少能真正轉化爲對臺灣有實質幫助的行動。

國民黨新任主席應當要注意,避免也跟風專注在社交媒體的友善陷阱中,不需要花太多的時間跟只會以貼文來支持臺灣的外國友人交相往來,應該要專注在對臺灣選民及外國政府有影響力的有力人士建立友好關係,首要之事便是在上任後儘速跟AIT接洽正式會面,若能直接請到AIT處長會晤新任黨主席,不但能顯示美國當局對於該黨的尊重,也能給新任主席一個漂亮的出場式。

在國際間逐漸恢復正常旅行往來以後,新任黨主席也應設法說服外交部,在外國政要訪臺行程中加入與國民黨的會晤。即將來臺參訪的法國參議員訪問團便是一個試水溫的好時機,可以展現新任黨主席在處理國際事務上的能力與魅力。

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在建立國民黨的國際新形象之上,新任黨主席更應該謹慎排序內部黨務的優先順序、大力整頓黨內低迷氣氛,其中包括平撫黨內的團結問題、10月對立委陳柏惟的罷免案、12月舉行的公投、解決黨所面臨的財務危機、以及2022年地方選舉的選戰策略等。

同時國民黨也要重新振作、扮演好在野黨的角色,在選民關心的議題上提供有建設的政見、監督執政黨,並且提出國民黨自己的政策與主張。缺乏清晰有力的國家政策與理念,是目前美國與國際社會眼中國民黨的弱項。首先國民黨必須說服臺灣人民對他們產生信賴與建立起友好觀感,其次才能進一步改變外國政府對國民黨的既有評價。

站在美國的角度,上述國民黨主席的待做清單大多與美國無直接關聯,而就算美國政府對國民黨的態度有轉變,也無助於新任黨主席在上述事項的執行與決策。由國民黨所進行、近期可能會得到美國深切關注的議題,大概只有針對美豬進口的公投案。美國多年來持續向馬政府與政蔡府要求臺灣放寬美豬進口禁令,也就是說對美國而言,主要重點在於美國豬肉產品准入臺灣市場,這是一題經貿議題,與臺灣哪一個政黨當政關係不大。

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如果公投通過,新任黨主席將需要準備好一個口徑一致的對策,來對美國解釋他們爲什麼推動這項進口禁令。若到時候國民黨又同時支持臺灣與美國展開其他自由貿易協定,很可能會出現自相矛盾的窘境。

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最近蔡英文總統與日本自民黨黨魁候選人高市早苗進行了一場公開視訊會議,這說明了民進黨和日本的自民黨關係友好且密切,除非國民黨再次成爲執政黨,或者展現出國民黨的對中主張也能符合日本利益,否則自民黨不太可能會拋下民進黨轉而對國民黨主動示好。

朱立倫的首要任務是向全世界解釋清楚他的兩岸論述,也就是解釋他的九二共識與馬英九的九二共識到底有何異同。其次,若朱真的兌現他在美國華府開設國民黨代表處的競選政見,他也必須明確定義這個黨代表處的目標與功能、部署好預算與人員配置,確保其有效運作。鑑於國民黨對臺灣國防問題的主張,該黨的駐美代表最好是一名有軍事背景的退役軍官,這位人選除了必須有能力清晰闡明國民黨在國防軍購上的野心,也需要針對蔡政府向美國採購來的軍事裝備提出更好的替代採購方案。

在前次總統和立委選舉中,執政的民進黨政府打出川普牌,讓臺灣選民相信美國政府與臺灣關係日益緊密,展現出民進黨似乎比其他的政黨更能貼近美國、以保護臺灣人的權益,因而獲得大勝。從美國的角度來看,以民進黨的反中態度和在臺灣聚集的人氣,要說服讓當時的川普政府靠攏民進黨和蔡英文總統是很合理的。國民黨若也想要在選戰中得到美國的支持,新任黨主席接下來首先必須要讓國民黨得到選民支持的好成績,才足以得到美國當局的青睞。(作者爲美國共和黨海外部亞太區前主席)

全文:

The New Kuomintang Chairman’s Success Does Not Depend on the United States

医毒双绝:邪王的小野妃 黎盺盺

By Ross Darrell Feingold

重生之军嫂勐如虎 苏念凉

Former Asia Chairman Republicans Abroad

Eric Chu Li-luan’s victory in today’s Kuomintang chairman election will bring renewed attention to the perennial question in Taiwan politics as to what the Kuomintang’s China policy is and how the Kuomintang views Taiwan’s current and future political status. From the perspective of the international community it will also once again bring renewed attention to how the Kuomintang proposes to balance relations between China Japan and the United States. Hopefully the new chairman will avoid the frequent habit in Taiwan in which politicians condense an important policy into word couplets such as “peace with China friendly to Japan close to the United States” 「和中、友日、親美」 and instead he will announce a more substantive policy proposal.

We should keep in mind that the international community (other than the United States) does not really care who is the chairman of Taiwan’s largest opposition political party. Amid global discontent with China an increasing number of politicians are critical of China and sometimes make supportive statements about Taiwan. Often such supportive statements do not translate into substantive action on behalf of Taiwan (tweets and visits to Taiwan should not be considered substantive action). The new Kuomintang chairman should be careful to avoid the trap of praising tweets by foreigners who talk about Taiwan but take no substantive action to make Taiwan more secure. Similarly the new Kuomintang chairman should avoid wasting time on videoconferences or meetings with the many foreign scholars who claim to be China and Taiwan experts but who have no influence over Taiwan voters or the policies of foreign governments.

Although the new chairman should meet with the American Institute in Taiwan as soon as possible to preserve his own and the party’s dignity he should insist that the AIT Taipei Office director attend the meeting. Assuming normal travel resumes soon the new chairman should also try to persuade the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to include a meeting with the Kuomintang on the itinerary of visiting foreign political dignitaries. The upcoming visit of French senators will be a good test of the new chairman’s ability to do this.

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However the new chairman should also keep in mind that these events take time away from more important priorities making time spent on international affairs a distraction from the new chairman’s priorities.

What are the priorities for the new Kuomintang chairman? The priorities include repairing the internal disunity that arose during the chairman election a successful recall of Legislator Chen Po-wei in October successful referendums in December raising money to address the Kuomintang’s financial crisis candidate selection and election strategy for the 2022 local elections. and generally providing policy ideas for the issues voters care about. A loyal opposition can be critical of the Tsai Ing-wen administration but still needs to propose its own policy ideas. The United States and international community perceive the Kuomintang as having failed to provide good national policy ideas but this should be fixed for the sake of Taiwan’s people and not to change the views of foreign governments.

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The above priority items are irrelevant to the United States. Similarly an improvement in how the United States government views the Kuomintang won’t help the new chairman achieve successful outcomes with these priorities either. One exception is the referendum to prevent imports of pork that contains ractopamine. The United States pressured both the Tsai Ing-wen and Ma Ying-jeou administrations to relax Taiwan’s ban on ractopamine pork from the United States thus for the United States this issue has little to do with Taiwan’s political parties and is for the most part about obtaining market access for the U.S. pork industry. If the referendum passes the new chairman will need a coherent explanation as to why the Kuomintang supported an import ban. If at that time the Kuomintang supports a free trade agreement with the United States he will need to explain why American pork was singled out for a ban.

The recent videoconference between President Tsai Ing-wen and Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership candidate Takaichi Sanae shows that the Democratic Progressive Party and Liberal Democratic Party enjoy warm ties and the Liberal Democratic Party sees little value in a relationship with the Kuomintang. Unless and until the Kuomintang again becomes Taiwan’s ruling party or unless and until the Kuomintang’s China policies are similar to the Democratic Progressive Party then Liberal Democratic Party politicians are unlikely to be friendly towards the Kuomintang.

For Chu a priority will be to explain to his United States interlocutors his China policy and whether it differs from or is consistent with former president Ma Ying-jeou and other Kuomintang politicians’ reliance on the “1992 Consensus” as the basis for relations between Taiwan and China. If Chu follows through on his plan to open a Kuomintang representative office in Washington DC the reasons for doing so must be clear the office’s deliverables achievable the budget sufficient and the personnel appropriate. Given past concerns about the Kuomintang’s commitment to national defense the representative will ideally be a former career military officer who can articulate that the Kuomintang supports sufficient defense spending even if it has concerns about the utility and cost of specific weapons systems the Tsai administration has in recent years agreed to purchase from the United States.

It is true that during the most recent presidential and legislative election campaign the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party government emphasized to voters the increasingly strong relations between the Trump Administration and Taiwan. However this was one among many Democratic Progressive Party selling points that gave Taiwan’s voters confidence that the Democratic Progressive Party protects their interests better than the Kuomintang or other options. From the United States perspective the Democratic Progressive Party’s policies and popularity made it easy for the Trump Administration to support the Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai Ing-wen. If the new Kuomintang chairman wants United States support he should first ensure he has the support of Taiwan’s voters.

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